Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty
Asymmetries: Finally, you need to think about something we might call “metaprobability”—the probability that your probability estimates themselves are any good.
Rhiannon Beaubien • The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts
Third, we are fearful creatures and go to great lengths to preserve a sense of certainty, even when we know it to be false.
W. Brian Arthur • Complexity Economics: Proceedings of the Santa Fe Institute's 2019 Fall Symposium
We know a lot less about hundred-year floods than five-year floods—model error swells when it comes to small probabilities. The rarer the event, the less tractable, and the less we know about how frequent its occurrence—yet the rarer the event, the more confident these “scientists” involved in predicting, modeling, and using PowerPoint in conferenc... See more