But more recently, prediction markets have developed an odd sort of problem. There seems to be a feedback mechanism now whereby the betting-market odds reify themselves. . . .

Traders are treating market odds as correct probabilities and not updating enough based on outside information. Belief in the correctness of prediction markets causes them

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In prediction markets, being consistently right matters more than being occasionally lucky. Research beats gambling. Patience beats excitement. Sharing information strengthens your position rather than weakening it. The best traders aren't degenerate gamblers but patient builders of track records.

This is the model: games where your intelligence

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