lowkey bruh moment that prediction markets are hyperstition mechanisms that make the future more deterministic by pooling attention between different agents (individuals, nation states, companies) and increase both the incentives and opportunity costs of cashing out on information asymmetry

But more recently, prediction markets have developed an odd sort of problem. There seems to be a feedback mechanism now whereby the betting-market odds reify themselves. . . .

Traders are treating market odds as correct probabilities and not updating enough based on outside information. Belief in the correctness of prediction markets causes them

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