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This would have been a good bargain, and not just in hindsight; a Manifold market at the time presciently assigned SBF a 71 percent chance

8] I’d

But not everybody is playing the same game. People have different incentives, and they may be following their incentives rationally, but it nevertheless creates profitable opportunities for DFT, which just wants to make money. Maybe conscientious contrarianism

The EAs were too “woke” and too concerned with appearances.

roon is a member of the technical staff at OpenAI, or at least that’s how The Washington Post describes him.

“The superforecasters see the doomsters as somewhat self-aggrandizing, narcissistic, messianic, saving-the-world types,”

You could tell that the Manifest conference was a rationalist rather than an EA event because of the presence of people who were either considered unwoke (like Hanson, who told me he’d basically been canceled from EA events since a 2018 blog post in which he wrote sympathetically about the idea of redistributing sex to incels),

He has distanced himself from the faction known as “e/acc” or “effective accelerationism,” a term used by Beff Jezos, Marc Andreessen, and others as a winking dig at effective altruism. (Altman has tipped his hat to e/acc too, once replying “you cannot out accelerate me” to one of Jezos’s tweets—another sign that he serves at the pleasure of the