On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything

Lucky people “constantly encounter chance opportunities” and try out new things. Lucky people “make good decisions without knowing why.” They listen to their intuition. Lucky people have positive expectations so their “dreams, ambitions and goals have an uncanny knack of coming true.” Lucky people “have an ability to turn their bad luck into good f

“The superforecasters see the doomsters as somewhat self-aggrandizing, narcissistic, messianic, saving-the-world types,”

in practice both EAs and rationalists have a catholic appetite for involving themselves in all sorts of controversies. Effective altruism

of being sentenced to at least twenty years in prison. And yet he hesitated. “I’d have to think about exactly what that meant,” he said after a long pause.

Is America’s increasing penchant for gambling another sign of stagnation?

Although Baha Mar is one of the nicest resorts you could imagine, the Bahamas also has among the world’s highest rates of wealth inequality.

This would have been a good bargain, and not just in hindsight; a Manifold market at the time presciently assigned SBF a 71 percent chance

He cited a forecast from a different play-money prediction market site called Metaculus. “What’s the chance of FTX defaulting on any customer deposit in 2022? It was like one point three percent,” MacAskill recalled.

“The rationalist utopia is a power trip,”