
On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything

Yudkowsky looks the part of the bearded, middle-aged computer nerd, and his vocabulary is shaped by years of arguing on the internet—his native tongue is Riverian, but his is a regional dialect thick with axioms and allusions and allegories. This particular one referred to a statement
Nate Silver • On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything
He has distanced himself from the faction known as “e/acc” or “effective accelerationism,” a term used by Beff Jezos, Marc Andreessen, and others as a winking dig at effective altruism. (Altman has tipped his hat to e/acc too, once replying “you cannot out accelerate me” to one of Jezos’s tweets—another sign that he serves at the pleasure of the
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they’re both dependent on recreational bettors to make their profits. In
Nate Silver • On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything
someone with an informed, original opinion about what the betting line should be, usually formulated through painstaking statistical modeling.
Nate Silver • On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything
prediction is that about 90 percent of you would push the button. And thank goodness for that, because that rather than SBF-style rationality is what creates nuclear deterrence.
Nate Silver • On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything
This would have been a good bargain, and not just in hindsight; a Manifold market at the time presciently assigned SBF a 71 percent chance
Nate Silver • On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything
But roon told me that he first created his Twitter account to be a Nate Silver reply guy, “with the express intention of trolling your replies” about my election forecasts.
Nate Silver • On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything
“You’re essentially indirectly competing against the smartest, most informationally savvy groups in the world.”