Between all forms of gambling, Americans are probably making in excess of $1 trillion in bets annually.

they’re both dependent on recreational bettors to make their profits. In

The EAs were too “woke” and too concerned with appearances.

This would have been a good bargain, and not just in hindsight; a Manifold market at the time presciently assigned SBF a 71 percent chance

“The superforecasters see the doomsters as somewhat self-aggrandizing, narcissistic, messianic, saving-the-world types,”

of being sentenced to at least twenty years in prison. And yet he hesitated. “I’d have to think about exactly what that meant,” he said after a long pause.

But not everybody is playing the same game. People have different incentives, and they may be following their incentives rationally, but it nevertheless creates profitable opportunities for DFT, which just wants to make money. Maybe conscientious contrarianism

As news organizations scrambled to correct their coverage, for instance, traders at Manifold determined that the IDF probably hadn’t been responsible for whatever had happened on that particular night at the Gaza hospital.[*19] But the bigger concern I have,

“The rationalist utopia is a power trip,”