Are we back to the good old days of actual contrarian thinking? When a16 invested in Airbnb, market analysis suggested the short-term rental market was too niche and regulatory barriers too high. Their willingness to override consensus analysis—precisely the kind that research agents excel at producing—led to one of venture capital's greatest... See more

There are great consensus bets to be made, capital itself becomes the moat for some of these companies, exits may be (are presumed to be) sooner than true venture exits, and you’ll make money off the beta, highly correlated with the growth of the entire category.

As The Consensus Capital Machine has raged on, it has only further eradicated the survivability of contrarian perspectives.

The ongoing pursuit of consensus has poisoned every aspect of the company building equation and, increasingly, the culture building equation. Everything from the influence of vibes pushing the CEO of Starbucks to go “all in on... See more