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The importance of admitting that we can’t predict or control the future. The benefits of studying the patterns of the past and using them as a rough guide to what could happen next. The inevitability that cycles will reverse and reckless excess will be punished. The possibility of turning cyclicality to our advantage by behaving countercyclically.

To respond to market cycles and understand their message, one realization is more important than all others: the risk in investing doesn’t come primarily from the economy, the companies, the securities, the stock certificates or the exchange buildings. It comes from the behavior of the market participants. So do most of the opportunities for