he previously mentioned research finds that an investor with $100,000 in an equity mutual fund has the equivalent of a $2,500 bet on the election already.
Saved by Lucas Kohorst
Determined to protect his newfound wealth, Berlekamp bought top-rated municipal bonds, but a rumor in the spring of 1986 that Congress might remove the tax-free status of those investments crushed their value. Congress never acted, but the experience taught Berlekamp that investors sometimes act irrationally.
History, in this instance, does teach a lesson: Although the castle-in-the-air theory can well explain such speculative binges, outguessing the reactions of a fickle crowd is a most dangerous game.
In the weeks leading up to the election, there had been a pattern: stock markets everywhere tanked on good news for Trump, and rose on good news for Clinton. Good news for Trump had proven to be bad news especially in emerging markets, like Mexico. The Jane Street trading plan wasn’t all that complicated. They’d get the voting results before everyo
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