he previously mentioned research finds that an investor with $100,000 in an equity mutual fund has the equivalent of a $2,500 bet on the election already.
Saved by Lucas Kohorst
This would have been a good bargain, and not just in hindsight; a Manifold market at the time presciently assigned SBF a 71 percent chance
Economics 101 teaches that trading is rational only when it makes both parties better off. A baseball team with two good shortstops but no pitching trades one of them to a team with plenty of good arms but a shortstop who’s batting .190. Or an investor who is getting ready to retire cashes out her stocks and trades them to another investor who is j
... See moreThe massive shift to index funds over the past 15 years or so drove the valuations of the largest index components to levels which guarantee poor returns going forward. Poor returns, in turn, will guarantee these inflows will turn to outflows and the virtuous cycle will become a vicious one.” Or as Nassim Taleb says, “We have been fragilizing the e
... See moreThe results strongly supported our hypothesis. We tested for overreaction in various ways, but as long as the period we looked back at to create the portfolios was long enough, say three years, then the Loser portfolio did better than the Winner portfolio. Much better. For example, in one test we used five years of performance to form the Winner an
... See moremore people were participating, which is good, but their savings rates were far too low and their investments were far too conservative.
what good is a prediction if you aren’t willing to put money on it?