Reuters • The folly of making political prediction markets like Intrade illegal
Saved by Lucas Kohorst
he previously mentioned research finds that an investor with $100,000 in an equity mutual fund has the equivalent of a $2,500 bet on the election already.
Saved by Lucas Kohorst
The economists wrote: “Our findings suggest that individual investors’ willingness to bear risk depends on personal history.” Not intelligence, or education, or sophistication. Just the dumb luck of when and where you were born.
Investor Jim Grant once said: To suppose that the value of a common stock is determined purely by a corporation’s earnings discounted by the relevant interest rates and adjusted for the marginal tax rate is to forget that people have burned witches, gone to war on a whim, risen to the defense of Joseph Stalin and believed Orson Welles when he told
... See moreFirst, there is the weak form of efficient-market hypothesis. What this claims is that stock-market prices cannot be predicted from analyzing past statistical patterns alone. In other words, the chartist’s techniques are bound to fail. The semistrong form of efficient-market hypothesis takes things a step further. It argues that fundamental analysi
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