he previously mentioned research finds that an investor with $100,000 in an equity mutual fund has the equivalent of a $2,500 bet on the election already.
Saved by Lucas Kohorst
In the weeks leading up to the election, there had been a pattern: stock markets everywhere tanked on good news for Trump, and rose on good news for Clinton. Good news for Trump had proven to be bad news especially in emerging markets, like Mexico. The Jane Street trading plan wasn’t all that complicated. They’d get the voting results before everyo
... See moreAs the evening wore on, Jane Street’s worries that other high-frequency trading firms might be doing the same trade eased. “Markets were moving at the speed of CNN, not the speed of data,” said Sam. “We were confident we had better info than the market. We had a sense that if anyone else was doing this, they were very small.” Seven times that eveni
... See moreThe Jane Street trading plan wasn’t all that complicated. They’d get the voting results before everyone else, that data would shift the odds of the election in one direction or the other, and they’d buy or sell both US and emerging market stocks in response.
The constant hunt for statistical patterns in markets led to all sorts of strange insights. Every time Brazil won a World Cup match, the Brazilian stock market tanked, for instance, because the win was thought to increase the shot at reelection of Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff, perceived to be corrupt. A faster and better sense of the Brazilia
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