Simon formulated the notion now known as bounded rationality: we cannot possibly measure and assess everything as if we were a computer; we therefore produce, under evolutionary pressures, some shortcuts and distortions. Our knowledge of the world is fundamentally incomplete, so we need to avoid getting into unanticipated trouble. And even if our k

How can smart people be so wrong? Well, the answer is that they don’t do what I’m telling you to do—which is to take all the main models from psychology and use them as a checklist in reviewing outcomes in complex systems. No pilot takes off without going through his checklist: A, B, C, D … And no bridge player who needs two extra tricks plays a ha

Part of thinking effectively is knowing, at one level, the likelihood that we might not be thinking well and so proceeding with humility and an appreciation of our mind’s characteristic tricks: this mind may be tired but unaware that it is so; it may be under the sway of emotion but certain it is calm; it may be judging a situation in the present a

for why smart people tend to be wrong as often as their not-so-smart peers—they work from the flawed premise that their worldview is standard.

The combination of motivated reasoning, the propensity to mislead yourself, and an overconfidence in intuition makes smart people less likely to seek feedback. When they do seek feedback, their ability to spin a persuasive narrative makes other people less likely to challenge them. That means that the smarter you are, the more vigilant you have to