start to say, “I’m not sure.” This opens us up to thinking in terms of probability, which is far more useful.

Conceding uncertainty frees us to make assessments based on limited information,

So you will need to adopt some different habits from the pundits you see on TV. You will need to learn how to express—and quantify—the uncertainty in your predictions. You will need to update your forecast as facts and circumstances change. You will need to recognize that there is wisdom in seeing the world from a different viewpoint. The more you