Attention Required! | Cloudflare
In many walks of life, expressions of uncertainty are mistaken for admissions of weakness. When you first start to make these probability estimates, they may be quite poor. But there are two pieces of favorable news. First, these estimates are just a starting point: Bayes’s theorem will have you revise and improve them as you encounter new
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Naturally, we are deterministic thinkers that live in a probabilistic world. Maintaining a deterministic mindset to deal with a complex world governed by probabilistic tendencies often results in a lot of inefficiencies and suboptimal output. In this HBR article, we are exposed to how to think probabilistically.
Naturally, we are deterministic thinkers that live in a probabilistic world. Maintaining a deterministic mindset to deal with a complex world governed by probabilistic tendencies often results in a… | David Alade
This is ultimately very good news: part of the skill in life comes from learning to be a better belief calibrator, using experience and information to more objectively update our beliefs to more accurately represent the world. The more accurate our beliefs, the better the foundation of the bets we make. There is also skill in identifying when our
... See moreAnnie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
The single most important driver of forecasters’ success was how often they updated their beliefs. The best forecasters went through more rethinking cycles. They had the confident humility to doubt their judgments and the curiosity to discover new information that led them to revise their predictions.
Adam Grant • Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know
Asymmetries: Finally, you need to think about something we might call “metaprobability”—the probability that your probability estimates themselves are any good.