Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises (RAND Studies in Policy Analysis)
James A. Dewaramazon.com
Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises (RAND Studies in Policy Analysis)
known unknowns--uncertain factors that you are aware of, meaning that the plan is correct but lacking precision, also known as bad luck or bad design.
Assumptions should be scrutinized, tested and challenged.
It is possible that a single assumption is so powerful that it can lead to a tactic without an additional assumption.
Moving from relatively simple pencil-and-paper forecasts to complex computerized scenarios makes it easier to perform the requisite calculations and to produce different scenarios, but it does not eliminate the inevitable perils of making assumptions. Just the opposite—more complex models combining the interactions of economic, social, technical, a
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