All Models Are Wrong

there is no correct pre-analytic vision, true paradigm or perfect frame out there to be discovered. In the deft words of the statistician George Box, ‘All models are wrong, but some are useful.’39 Rethinking economics is not about finding the correct one (because it doesn’t exist), it’s about choosing or creating one that best serves our purpose –

Observations and assumptions can exist only within an already largely structured system of thinking, one that is a priori riddled with errors.

Better models mean better thinking. The degree to which our models accurately explain reality is the degree to which they improve our thinking. Understanding reality is the name of the game. Understanding not only helps us decide which actions to take but helps us remove or avoid actions that have a big downside that we would otherwise not be aware

as the statistician George Box memorably put it, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”

Everything we think we know about the world is a model. Every word and every language is a model. All maps and statistics, books and databases, equations and computer programs are models. So are the ways I picture the world in my head—my mental models. None of these is or ever will be the real world.