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But the idea behind Pascal’s wager has fundamental applications outside of theology. It stands the entire notion of knowledge on its head. It eliminates the need for us to understand the probabilities of a rare event (there are fundamental limits to our knowledge of these); rather, we can focus on the payoff and benefits of an event if it takes
... See moreNassim Nicholas Taleb • The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2)
Bayes Theorem is the same type of probability you already know, just in reverse.
Scott Hartshorn • Tell Me The Odds: A 15 Page Introduction To Bayes Theorem
algorithm
Morgan • 1 card
Math
There are three important aspects of probability that we need to explain so you can integrate them into your thinking to get into the ballpark and improve your chances of catching the ball: Bayesian thinking Fat-tailed curves Asymmetries
Rhiannon Beaubien • The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts
Common statistical method is based on the steady augmentation of the confidence level, in nonlinear proportion to the number of observations. That is, for an n times increase in the sample size, we increase our knowledge by the square root of n. Suppose I am drawing from an urn containing red and black balls. My confidence level about the relative
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