Sublime

Statistically speaking, there are only weak correlations between how others see us and how we believe we are seen.

Instead, when we seek a dependable formula for success, we turn to the Mozarts, Warren Buffetts, and Tiger Woodses of the world. The ones everybody saw coming.

The majority of people are trustworthy.

When asked to name the attributes of someone who is particularly bad at predicting, Tetlock needed just one word. “Dogmatism,” he says. That is, an unshakable belief they know something to be true even when they don’t.

information about actual behavior is most valuable, because it’s the most accurate.

study done in 2009 by neuroscientist Greg Berns at Emory University found that the decision-making centers of our brain slow down or shut off when we are receiving wanted advice from experts. Customers consistently rate experts as the most trusted spokespeople, far above typical CEOs or celebrities.

we find ourselves deferring to, and parroting, the attitudes of established and prestigious others.

to the question of whether tests or experts can tell us what our potential is, what we’re capable of, what our future will be.

the desire to both stand out and fit in.