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La creencia en la ley de los pequeños números hacía referencia a las implicaciones de un error mental que cometen a menudo las personas, incluso aquellas que son estadísticos con formación académica. La mayoría confunde una parte muy pequeña de algo con el todo. Incluso los estadísticos tienden a alcanzar conclusiones a partir de conjuntos de prueb
... See moreMichael Lewis • Deshaciendo errores: Kahneman, Tversky y la amistad que nos enseñó cómo funciona la mente (Spanish Edition)
The ever-growing dispersion, which begged Galton for a counterforce, should never have been there in the first place.
Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie • The Book of Why
Stigler’s mark in economics centered on the economic competency—or rather incompetency—of state power. Once man’s behavior was reduced to utility-maximizing self-interest, economists were able to tear down the edifices of government intervention in the economy; they sought “a large role for explicit or implicit prices in the solution of many social
... See moreGlory M. Liu • Adam Smith’s America: How a Scottish Philosopher Became an Icon of American Capitalism
information emerges naturally in the steady states of physical systems that are out of equilibrium.
Cesar Hidalgo • Why Information Grows: The Evolution of Order, from Atoms to Economies
he discovered the long-sought grail of probability, what future mathematicians would call the probability of causes, the principle of inverse probability, Bayesian statistics, or simply Bayes’ rule.
Sharon Bertsch McGrayne • The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
it being taken for granted that at least one other hypothesis (Divine Providence or Newtonian dynamics) would yield a much higher probability for the observed data than the probability found under a hypothesis of “chance.”
Stephen M. Stigler • The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom
“cliometrics” or economic history.