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He transformed probability from a gambler’s measure of frequency into a measure of informed belief.
Sharon Bertsch McGrayne • The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
In short, we can rely only on what we learn from experience.
Sharon Bertsch McGrayne • The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
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In building a mathematical model of scientific thinking, where a reasonable person could develop a hypothesis and then evaluate it relentlessly in light of new knowledge, he became the first modern Bayesian. His system was enormously sensitive to new information.
Sharon Bertsch McGrayne • The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
Bayes added that if he did not know enough to distinguish the position of the balls on his table, he would assume they were equally likely to fall anywhere on
Sharon Bertsch McGrayne • The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
clever people sought to measure, in data bits, the amount of information produced in
Martin Gurri • Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium
he discovered the long-sought grail of probability, what future mathematicians would call the probability of causes, the principle of inverse probability, Bayesian statistics, or simply Bayes’ rule.
Sharon Bertsch McGrayne • The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
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