Sublime
An inspiration engine for ideas
Village Global's Venture Stories - A Primer On Prediction Markets With Robin Hanson on Stitcher
stitcher.comcleverest observer. Consider
Martin Gurri • Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium
I think today the variance of weirdness is increasing. Conformists can conform like never before, due say to social media and the Girardian desire to mimic others. But unusual people can connect with other unusual people, and make each other much weirder and more "niche." For instance, every possible variant of political views seems to be "out... See more
Noah Smith • Interview: Tyler Cowen, economist and public intellectual
The Straussian Moment
gwern.net.@rabois on the most important lesson he learned from Peter Thiel: You can’t hire anybody over 30.
“Peter might not say it exactly the same way today, but basically, what he was trying to say is this: by the time you’re 30, everyone on the planet knows how to assess you pretty accurately. There are enough data points on... See more
Arjun Khemanix.comMy anecdotal evidence generally seems to support the idea that group sizes will usually plateau at a number lower than 150 participants. This comes from 20 years of doing facilitation both on and offline, running several software companies, and running various forums at America Online. In particular, many online communities provide good evidence... See more
Christopher Allen • The Dunbar Number as a Limit to Group Sizes
Parfit and Cowen insisted that this leads to moral absurdities. “According to a social-discount rate of 5%, one statistical death next year counts for more than a billion deaths in 400 years,” they observed. They concluded by arguing that discount rates were not morally coherent. We should be equally concerned about the known consequences of our... See more
archive.ph • Tyler Cowen, the Man Who Wants to Know Everything
Scientific models that seek to predict the consequences of human actions with some reasonable accuracy—such as game theoretical models of economic behavior—for the most part ignore human individuality in favor of aggregated outcomes.