Sublime
An inspiration engine for ideas
Erik Hoel • Why We Stopped Making Einsteins
ACX 2025 Prediction Contest
thedissonance.net
“Bet” and “speculate” force us to face the reality that the future will bring changes that we didn’t anticipate. If we admit that the future will be variable, then we have to put better practices and measures of success in place that enable us to adapt to the future that occurs.
Jim Highsmith • EDGE: Value-Driven Digital Transformation
CHAPTER 2 Wanna Bet?
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
So why did I say Trump had exactly a 98 percent chance of winning when I couldn’t possibly know the odds? That’s a persuasion technique.
Scott Adams • Win Bigly: Persuasion in a World Where Facts Don't Matter
Nassim Taleb, author and researcher, sums it up in this graph:
Steven Bartlett • The Diary of a CEO: The 33 Laws of Business and Life
There are three important aspects of probability that we need to explain so you can integrate them into your thinking to get into the ballpark and improve your chances of catching the ball: Bayesian thinking Fat-tailed curves Asymmetries