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Second, I look at long-term trends as they affect the major protagonists on the world scene, the United States, the European Union, China, Japan, Russia, and the militant political Islam.
Vaclav Smil • Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years
If we are building principles for politics, we need approaches which are relatively fortified against human error and the rampant human tendency for self-deception, and which can transcend our own tendencies for excessive “us vs. them” thinking.
Tyler Cowen • Stubborn Attachments: A Vision for a Society of Free, Prosperous, and Responsible Individuals
More Than You Ever Wanted To Know About Volatility Swaps
Explores volatility and variance swaps, their properties, uses for trading and hedging volatility exposure, and methods for replication and valuation using options, while addressing practical challenges and implications of volatility skews.
emanuelderman.comA Student's Guide to Political Philosophy (ISI Guides to the Major Disciplines)
amazon.com
Here, the right test of skill would be whether a forecaster can do better than mindlessly predicting no change.
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Good policy uses incentives to channel behavior toward some desired outcome. Bad policy either ignores incentives, or fails to anticipate how rational individuals might change their behavior to avoid being penalized.
Charles Wheelan • Naked Economics: Undressing the Dismal Science (Fully Revised and Updated)
Patrick Prothe
@patrickprothe
it will not be possible for the federal government to retreat from its deep involvement with society.