Sublime

“That start-up achieved an outstanding proof of concept, but we shouldn’t expect them to do as well in the future. They are still a long way from the market and there is a lot of room for regression.” “Our intuitive prediction is very favorable, but it is probably too high. Let’s take into account the strength of our evidence and regress the

Scientific models that seek to predict the consequences of human actions with some reasonable accuracy—such as game theoretical models of economic behavior—for the most part ignore human individuality in favor of aggregated outcomes.

famous experiment conducted by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, participants were asked to make a decision about administering medical treatment to a sick population of six hundred people.

Nassim Taleb, author and researcher, sums it up in this graph:

Beware of forecasters.

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