Sublime

When asked to name the attributes of someone who is particularly bad at predicting, Tetlock needed just one word. “Dogmatism,” he says. That is, an unshakable belief they know something to be true even when they don’t.

INTRODUCTION

Foxes, Tetlock found, are considerably better at forecasting than hedgehogs.

repeated, attribute by attribute

Let us remember that economists are evaluated on how intelligent they sound, not on a scientific measure of their knowledge of reality.

Asymmetries: Finally, you need to think about something we might call “metaprobability”—the probability that your probability estimates themselves are any good.

companies have a strong incentive to exploit behavioral biases, including availability, unrealistic optimism, and anchoring.

Risk, as first articulated by the economist Frank H. Knight in 1921,45 is something that you can put a price on.

Terrorists are masters of mind control. They kill very few people but nevertheless manage to terrify billions and rattle huge political structures such as the European Union or the United States. Since September 11, 2001, each year terrorists have killed about 50 people in the European Union, about 10 people in the United States, about 7 people in