Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition

But a checklist’s applicability is largely a function of a domain’s stability. In stable environments, where cause and effect is pretty clear and things don’t change much, checklists are great. But in rapidly changing environments that are heavily circumstantial, creating a checklist is a lot more difficult. In those environments, checklists can he

Even when faced with evidence that their predictions are wrong, experts conjure up ways to defend their choices, in large part to preserve their self-images. The lesson is that even good feedback is not useful if you do not use it.

Also resist the temptation to treat a complex system as if it’s simpler than it is.

We can trace most of the large financial disasters to a model that failed to capture the richness of outcomes inherent in a complex system like the stock market.

Considering what motivates the decisions of others, especially when those decisions affect you, is also essential. Incentives matter. Take a negotiation course, because skilled negotiators are masters at figuring out what is important to the other party and arriving at mutually beneficial solutions. Even if you are not dealing directly with another

Warren Buffett said: “Virtually all surprises are unpleasant.”9 So considering the worst-case scenarios is vital and generally overlooked in prosperous times.

The journal allows you to audit your decisions.

attest. Very few consequential decisions occur in a void, so you must consider the potential repercussions of any choice.3

Think Twice’s value comes in situations where the stakes are sufficiently high and where your natural decision-making process leads you to a suboptimal choice.