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The University of Pennsylvania psychologist and political scientist Philip E. Tetlock has found that experts are generally terrible at making predictions about future events. In fact, he’s found that the more prominent the expert, the less accurate their predictions. Tetlock says this is because experts’ views are too locked in—they use their knowl... See more
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Tetlock has studied 300 academics, economists, policymakers and journalists and compared more than 82,000 of their forecasts to what actually happened in the real world. Here are his conclusions:
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Tetlock's book Expert Political Judgment:
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Tetlock leur a donné des surnoms (empruntés au philosophe Isaiah Berlin) qui sont devenus célèbres dans les communautés de la psychologie et du renseignement : les hérissons spécialisés qui « connaissent une chose sur le bout des ongles » et les renards agrégateurs qui « connaissent beaucoup de petites choses ».