Sublime

Tetlock has studied 300 academics, economists, policymakers and journalists and compared more than 82,000 of their forecasts to what actually happened in the real world. Here are his conclusions:

Tetlock's book Expert Political Judgment:

Tetlock leur a donné des surnoms (empruntés au philosophe Isaiah Berlin) qui sont devenus célèbres dans les communautés de la psychologie et du renseignement : les hérissons spécialisés qui « connaissent une chose sur le bout des ongles » et les renards agrégateurs qui « connaissent beaucoup de petites choses ».

“Who experts were—professional background, status, and so on—made scarcely an iota of difference,” Tetlock concludes. “Nor did what experts thought—whether they were liberals or conservatives, realists or institutionalists, optimists or pessimists.” But “[h]ow experts thought—their style of reasoning—did matter.” The critical variable turned out to