Sublime
An inspiration engine for ideas
the more famous an expert was, the less accurate he was.
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
aggregating the judgments of an equal number of people who know lots about lots of different things is most effective because the collective pool of information becomes much bigger.
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
“Where wisdom once was, quantification will now be.
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
And some forecasts are meant to comfort
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
“No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main strength,
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Superforecasting, Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner
Gautam Baid • The Joys of Compounding: The Passionate Pursuit of Lifelong Learning, Revised and Updated (Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing Series)
Here, the right test of skill would be whether a forecaster can do better than mindlessly predicting no change.
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Foxes beat hedgehogs on both calibration and resolution.