Sublime
An inspiration engine for ideas
The FiveThirtyEight forecasting model started out pretty simple—basically, it took an average of polls but weighted them according to their past accuracy—then gradually became more intricate. But it abided by three broad principles, all of which are very fox-like.
Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Less than a year after the Daily Beast article, Cernovich’s Twitter followers had tripled.
Michael Malice • The New Right: A Journey to the Fringe of American Politics
“Any honest assessment of the science is going to recognize that there are things we understand pretty darn well and things that we sort of know,” he told me. “But there are things that are uncertain and there are things we just have no idea about whatsoever.” “In my mind, one of the unfortunate consequences of this bad-faith public conversation we
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
futarchy.dev: what do the markets say?
futarchy-dev.vercel.appvery voter had been predictively targeted as persuadable.
Eric Siegel • Predictive Analytics
Vote Pairing is a Cost-Effective Political Intervention — EA Forum
Ben Westforum.effectivealtruism.org
Luck and skill are often portrayed as polar opposites. But the relationship is a little more complicated than that.