Sublime

But roon told me that he first created his Twitter account to be a Nate Silver reply guy, “with the express intention of trolling your replies” about my election forecasts.

In cases where we don’t have good priors, our predictions aren’t good.

“If we have enough data, I know we can make predictions,”

I pay quite a bit of attention to what the consensus view is—what a market like Intrade is saying—when I make a forecast. It is never an absolute constraint. But the further I move away from that consensus, the stronger my evidence has to be before I come to the view that I have things right and everyone else has it wrong. This attitude, I think, w

These things aren’t exactly easy—many people get them wrong. But they aren’t hard either, and by doing them you may be able to make predictions 80 percent as reliable as those of the world’s foremost expert. Sometimes, however, it is not so much how good your predictions are in an absolute sense that matters but how good they are relative to the co

When you’re selling, success depends on efficiency.

The subtle pro-Reagan bias in Jennings’s face seems to have influenced the voting behavior of ABC viewers.