Sublime

But what is also very important to add to that examination -- and not possible for Hasan last year as I'm sure he didn't even know of this dynamic or the metrics -- is the NI scores. Biden ... a paltry 8. Trump ... a brutal, almost abusive 26.

Bubble detection does not seem so hopeless. I don’t think we’re ever going to bat 100 percent, or even 50 percent, but I think we can get somewhere. Some of the bubbles of recent years, particularly the housing bubble, were detected by enormous numbers of people well in advance. And tests like Shiller’s P/E ratio have been quite reliable indicators

The FiveThirtyEight forecasting model started out pretty simple—basically, it took an average of polls but weighted them according to their past accuracy—then gradually became more intricate. But it abided by three broad principles, all of which are very fox-like.