Sublime

A preference for unbiased predictions is justified if all errors of prediction are treated alike, regardless of their direction. But there are situations in which one type of error is much worse than another. When a venture capitalist looks for “the next big thing,” the risk of missing the next Google or Facebook is far more important than the risk

“If we did not do this already, would we, knowing what we now know, go into it?”26

markets are highly competitive, and money managers charge fees that diminish returns.

collectives are typically more valuable than experts when the problem is complex and specifiable rules cannot solve it.

Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger, by Peter Bevelin.

One of the Kelly formula’s central lessons is that betting too much in a system with extreme outcomes leads to ruin.

The first is that X must occur before Y.

excellent proxies for the quantitative and qualitative judgments that investors make