Sublime

Tetlock has studied 300 academics, economists, policymakers and journalists and compared more than 82,000 of their forecasts to what actually happened in the real world. Here are his conclusions:

She explained that an externality was not irrelevant, but, rather, uncounted—a consequence without a cost.

Talent Is Overrated: What Really Separates World-Class Performers from Everybody Else BY GEOFF COLVIN

The act of measuring certain sensitive variables in a system can alter them, and confound the accuracy of the measurement.

E&E factor: energy and excellence.

under 2,000 pounds and under $2,000”—were

C’est d’abord la sélection aléatoire qui compte. En 1936, les 2,4 millions de répondants américains collectés par le Literary Digest prédisaient une victoire des républicains et se sont trompés tandis que les 5 000 personnes interrogées aléatoirement par George Gallup ont anticipé la réélection de Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

For these reasons, prices may pass statistical tests for randomness, but they are not themselves random (although it is plausible that their randomness is random, and that randomness is random, and so on) but rather are unpredictable on the basis of market data alone. They are, however, predictable to the extent that the predictor accurately assess

of reliability, peace of mind, and convenience.