Sublime
An inspiration engine for ideas
Here’s one approach when you see a very high yield offered in crypto:
1) Accept that the risk-free rate is ~4%;
2) If the yield offered is higher than 4%, accept that the market is pricing in risk.
3) Write down exactly what those risks are. If you don’t know... See more
Matt Houganx.comThe Acid Capitalist @hendry_hugh has returned from his spelunking sojourns with sooths from our future. Hark!
“The performance of digital currency, bitcoin, et al. has very much impressed me on this severe test for risk assets… it’s been tough out there… the performance of Bitcoin from $110k to $74k, it’s changing. It’s... See more
Matthew Pinesx.com
My conversation with @matthuang
Matt is one of the most important leaders in crypto, someone who brings balance and stability to an often volatile world
The way he’s built his investing firm, Paradigm, is inspiring and unique
We cover his story, and the state of... See more
I think about interest rate hedges the same way I do about commodity prices: it’s about risk management.
Unless you’re a macro hedge fund that speculates on rates for a living, making a gain on interest rates is luck, not genius. I’ve seen plenty of CEOs and CFOs call one interest rate or oil price correctly and suddenly believe they’re the next
... See more
Abstract
Bitcoin (BTC) returns exhibit pronounced positive skewness with a third central moment of approximately 150% per year. They are well characterized by a mixture of Normals distribution with one “normal” regime and a small probability of a “bliss” regime where the price appreciation is more than 100 times at the annual... See more