Sublime

A degree of self-deception, she said, was an essential part of the talent for living.

constructed.

“Basically—I empathize.

“One thing a person cannot do, no matter how rigorous his analysis or heroic his imagination,” the Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling once observed, “is to draw up a list of things that would never occur to him.”

“When once your point of view is changed, the very thing which was so damning becomes a clue to the truth.”

Big

This embarrassing episode remains one of the most instructive experiences of my professional life. I eventually learned three lessons from it. The first was immediately apparent: I had stumbled onto a distinction between two profoundly different approaches to forecasting, which Amos and I later labeled the inside view and the outside view. The seco

psychologist Daniel Kahneman, studied human decision making from the “heuristics and biases” model