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"No rational argument will have a rational effect on a man who does not want to adopt a rational attitude."
— Karl Popper, The Open Society and Its Enemies (1945)
This is where we use examples from the past to make definite conclusions about what is going to happen in the future. Popper considered this kind of thinking pseudoscience, or worse—a dangerous ideology that tempts wannabe state planners and utopians to control society. He did not consider such historicist doctrines falsifiable.
Rhiannon Beaubien • The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts
The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 1974
nobelprize.orgnobelprize.org
The central insight of Karl Popper, the great philosopher of science, is that science is not a collection of verifiable propositions; rather, it is a set of theories that, at best, can be wholly falsified.
Carlo Rovelli • Anaximander: And the Birth of Science
Popper introduced the mechanism of conjectures and refutations, which works as follows: you formulate a (bold) conjecture and you start looking for the observation that would prove you wrong. This is the alternative to our search for confirmatory instances. If you think the task is easy, you will be disappointed—few humans have a natural ability to
... See moreNassim Nicholas Taleb • The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2)
Karl Popper wrote “A theory is part of empirical science if and only if it conflicts with possible experiences
Rhiannon Beaubien • The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts
Learning to think is all about what another 20th-century philosopher, Karl Popper, came later to call ‘conjectures and refutations’. Everyday problem solving, suggested Dewey (and Popper), comprises a process a bit like going into a coconut shy: you put ideas up and you do your best to knock them down again; you shouldn’t just accept the first idea
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