Sublime

The error stems from the use of the representativeness heuristic: Linda’s description seems to match “bank teller and active in the feminist movement” far better than “bank teller.”

The experiment showed that group decisions, even obviously poor ones, influence our individual decisions.

Adam Appich, master of science, is there with several studies that show how legacy cognitive blindness will forever prevent people from acting in their own best interests.

“naturalistic decision making” (NDM) model of expertise;

favoring heuristics that have been successful recently and abandoning those that have performed poorly. Gigerenzer calls this way of solving problems ecological rationality.

There are three important aspects of probability that we need to explain so you can integrate them into your thinking to get into the ballpark and improve your chances of catching the ball: Bayesian thinking Fat-tailed curves Asymmetries

As Nassim Taleb has argued, inadequate appreciation of the uncertainty of the environment inevitably leads economic agents to take risks they should avoid.

Su primer trabajo publicado —que ellos consideraban casi una broma al mundo académico— había demostrado que una persona que se enfrenta a un problema que tiene una respuesta estadísticamente correcta no piensa como los estadísticos. Ni siquiera ellos pensaban como tales. «Belief in Law of Small Numbers» había planteado una cuestión que resultaba ob