Sublime

One of Klein’s colleagues, psychologist Daniel Kahneman, studied human decision making from the “heuristics and biases” model of human judgment. His findings could hardly have been more different from Klein’s. When Kahneman probed the judgments of highly trained experts, he often found that experience had not helped at all. Even worse, it frequentl

There are three important aspects of probability that we need to explain so you can integrate them into your thinking to get into the ballpark and improve your chances of catching the ball: Bayesian thinking Fat-tailed curves Asymmetries

In der Welt von Ratio und Zweck hat das Vermeiden von Verlusten den Rang eines Prinzips.

What organizations dedicated to running reliable algorithms often fail to realize is that while they reduce the risk of small variations in their businesses,

Adam Appich, master of science, is there with several studies that show how legacy cognitive blindness will forever prevent people from acting in their own best interests.

por que é tão difícil para gestores e testes de audiência avaliar ideias novas, além de aprender como aprimorar nossa capacidade de decidir o momento certo de jogar os dados.

Heuristics

Over the past few years, we have discreetly approached colleagues faced with a choice between job offers, and asked them to estimate the probability that they will choose one job over another. The average confidence in the predicted choice was a modest 66%, but only 1 of the 24 respondents chose the option to which he or she initially assigned a lo

FIGURE 4.