Sublime

I picked 98 percent as my Trump prediction because Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com was saying 2 percent. I did that for branding and persuasion purposes. It is easier to remember my prediction both because of the way it fits with Silver’s prediction and for its audacity,

Result: early success and long-term failure as illustrated by the failure of Donald Trump.

However, who you know has a very large impact on what you know.

You can have the best message in the world, but the person on the receiving end will always understand it through the prism of his or her own emotions, preconceptions, prejudices, and preexisting beliefs. It’s not enough to be correct or reasonable or even brilliant. The key to successful communication is to take the imaginative leap of stuffing yo

On peut donc craindre que les terrains sur lesquels se fonde désormais l’essentiel des sondages n’aient plus la même qualité de représentativité qu’auparavant. S’ajoutent à cela des effets de formulation des questions qu’on connaît bien et qui peuvent aboutir à surestimer certaines positions plutôt que d’autres.

(The “ask” only comes at the very end, within the last ten words. Why? Because a recall is the most extreme political maneuver other than impeachment. Don’t ask voters to take an extreme measure until you have told them why. And don’t expect them to agree with you unless and until you tell them the consequences of inaction. That’s why we added that

Their results are deeply troubling. They found that once we take into account the views of rich citizens and interest groups, the preferences of average citizens had almost no impact on which policies were adopted. When the rich wanted something different to the average American, they almost always got their way.

The new, hyper-partisan think tanks had impact far beyond Washington. They introduced doubt into areas of settled academic and scientific scholarship, undermined genuinely unbiased experts, and gave politicians a menu of conflicting statistics and arguments from which to choose. The benefit was a far more pluralistic intellectual climate, beyond li