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Perhaps the greatest “phase transition” in our thinking that such an approach could engender is the maturation in our willingness to live with relatively high levels of uncertainty in the domains of complex phenomena—and thus give up on ideas like complete “cures,” the elimination of “risk,” the design of perfect “stability,” and achieving total “s
... See moreJessica C. Flack • Worlds Hidden in Plain Sight: The Evolving Idea of Complexity at the Santa Fe Institute, 1984–2019 (Compass)
More Than You Ever Wanted To Know About Volatility Swaps
Explores volatility and variance swaps, their properties, uses for trading and hedging volatility exposure, and methods for replication and valuation using options, while addressing practical challenges and implications of volatility skews.
emanuelderman.com
It traditionally assumed that firms were independent, and so changes would be independent, and so their sizes and aggregate effects would be distributed normally.
W. Brian Arthur • Complexity Economics: Proceedings of the Santa Fe Institute's 2019 Fall Symposium

Remembering Daniel Kahneman: A Mosaic of Memories and Lessons - By Evan Nesterak - Behavioral Scientist
Evan Nesterakbehavioralscientist.orgAs a new point of view we turn to bounded rationality, a departure from the mainstream tradition. We no longer can assume that every agent is a perfect calculator. This point of view is given a great deal of emphasis by Herbert Simon. Simon argued that people do not maximize. When they’re forecasting the future, they do not perform the task of rati
... See moreJessica C. Flack • Worlds Hidden in Plain Sight: The Evolving Idea of Complexity at the Santa Fe Institute, 1984–2019 (Compass)
Surface areas of possible out-of-syncness.
Ray Dalio • Principles: Life and Work
Third, we are fearful creatures and go to great lengths to preserve a sense of certainty, even when we know it to be false.