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consequences.23 Instead,
Beau Underwood • Baptizing America
Hedgehogs vs. Foxes:
Patrick Tanguay • Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Future?
Dan Northington
@dnorth123
Robert Putnam showed in his book Bowling Alone
subpixel.space • Life After Lifestyle
The Distorting Power of Incentives (or the “Pointed Carrot”)
Laurence Endersen • Pebbles of Perception: How a Few Good Choices Make All The Difference
Close Friends Only
Daniel Gross • Reimagining Messaging
S&P and Moody’s had taken advantage of their select status to build up exceptional profits despite picking résumés out of Wall Street’s reject pile.*
Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
On average, in the five presidential elections since 1992, the typical “fundamentals-based” model—one that ignored the polls and claimed to discern exactly how voters would behave without them—has missed the final margin between the major candidates by almost 7 percentage points.35 Models that take a more fox-like approach, combining economic data
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