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The ratings agencies were paid by the issuer of the CDO every time they rated one: the more CDOs, the more profit. A virtually unlimited number of CDOs could be created by combining different types of mortgages—or when that got boring, combining different types of CDOs into derivatives of one another. Rarely did the ratings agencies turn down the o
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

Financial Instability
Alvaro Gornes • 2 cards
Pre-Mortem
theuncertaintyproject.org
Countless fortunes (and failures) owe their outcome to leverage. The best (and worst) managers drive their employees as hard as they can. “The customer is always right” and “customers don’t know what they want” are both accepted business wisdom. The line between “inspiringly bold” and “foolishly reckless” can be a millimeter thick and only visible
... See moreMorgan Housel • The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness
The door to jungle hut number 27, where Sam worked, was unlocked, and the receptionist’s desk was vacant. I’d soon be asking Nishad Singh for the same premortem I’d ask of others at the top of their psychiatrist’s org chart: “Imagine we’re in the future and your company has collapsed: tell me how it happened.” “Someone kidnaps Sam,” Nishad would re
... See moreMichael Lewis • Going Infinite: The Rise and Fall of a New Tycoon
She said much of the finance industry has too narrow a view of its strategy and goals. It often becomes a short-term, almost zero-sum game with many investors focused only on small relative gains won against each other.
W. Brian Arthur • Complexity Economics: Proceedings of the Santa Fe Institute's 2019 Fall Symposium
A big customer creates customer concentration risks. What happens if you scale up production, sales, and customer support for a big customer and then that customer decides to drop you?