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Real experts, Flyvbjerg writes unambiguously, don’t make plans (Flyvbjerg 2001, 19).
Sönke Ahrens • How to Take Smart Notes: One Simple Technique to Boost Writing, Learning and Thinking – for Students, Academics and Nonfiction Book Writers
The forecasting method that Flyvbjerg applies is similar to the practices recommended for overcoming base-rate neglect: Identify an appropriate reference class (kitchen renovations, large railway projects, etc.). Obtain the statistics of the reference class (in terms of cost per mile of railway, or of the percentage by which expenditures exceeded b
... See moreDaniel Kahneman • Thinking, Fast and Slow
Flyvbjerg’s analyses are intended to guide the authorities that commission public projects, by providing the statistics of overruns in similar projects. Decision makers need a realistic assessment of the costs and benefits of a proposal before making the final decision to approve it. They may also wish to estimate the budget reserve that they need
... See moreDaniel Kahneman • Thinking, Fast and Slow
På valgkamptur i Nord-Norge i 2021 viste han til et internt Sp-notat som slo fast at utgiftene til nytt regjeringskvartal kunne reduseres med hele 15 milliarder kroner.
Om lag halve summen skulle spares inn ved å kutte ut byggetrinn to og tre.
– Du kan få gratis ferjer i 23 år på de nordlige ferjestrekningene med under 100.000 passasjerer årlig bare
... See moreKristian Skårdalsmo • Den Nye Statsråden Har Arvet en Byggeplass
Pådriv for fjorden vår
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