Sublime

Real experts, Flyvbjerg writes unambiguously, don’t make plans (Flyvbjerg 2001, 19).

The forecasting method that Flyvbjerg applies is similar to the practices recommended for overcoming base-rate neglect: Identify an appropriate reference class (kitchen renovations, large railway projects, etc.). Obtain the statistics of the reference class (in terms of cost per mile of railway, or of the percentage by which expenditures exceeded b

Flyvbjerg’s analyses are intended to guide the authorities that commission public projects, by providing the statistics of overruns in similar projects. Decision makers need a realistic assessment of the costs and benefits of a proposal before making the final decision to approve it. They may also wish to estimate the budget reserve that they need

We’re good at learning by tinkering—which is fortunate, because we’re terrible at getting things right the first time.

“Especially when under time pressure, they perceive planning to be wasted effort.”[22]

“reference-class forecasting” (RCF).

Projects routinely start with answers, not questions.