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will explain why we can’t rely on procedures to make decisions in complex situations, and why tacit knowledge plays a more important role in decision making than is acknowledged by the claims surveyed in chapter 1. I will also show why biases aren’t always bad, why logic doesn’t always help, and why generating multiple options doesn’t always make
... See moreGary A. Klein • Streetlights and Shadows
Ryan Holiday (Tucker Max’s consultant, later stoic author, “Trust Me I’m Lying”) on how adding exceptions to a preconceived belief is easier than updating that belief:
“Once the mind has accepted a plausible explanation for something, it becomes a framework for all the information that is perceived after it. We’re drawn, subconsciously, to fit and
... See moreThe outside view and the risk policy are remedies against two distinct biases that affect many decisions: the exaggerated optimism of the planning fallacy and the exaggerated caution induced by loss aversion. The two biases oppose each other. Exaggerated optimism protects individuals and organizations from the paralyzing effects of loss aversion;
... See moreDaniel Kahneman • Thinking, Fast and Slow
When a core belief is questioned, though, we tend to shut down rather than open up. It’s as if there’s a miniature dictator living inside our heads,8 controlling the flow of facts to our minds, much like Kim Jong-un controls the press in North Korea. The technical term for this in psychology is the totalitarian ego, and its job is to keep out
... See moreAdam Grant • Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know
An easy way to avoid the unpleasant feelings of cognitive dissonance is to not discuss our beliefs with contacts who disagree, or to cease socializing with them altogether. As a result, our social circles become more homogeneous, and beliefs our former peers might have considered extreme are no longer challenged by anyone important to us. None
Jessica C. Flack • Worlds Hidden in Plain Sight: The Evolving Idea of Complexity at the Santa Fe Institute, 1984–2019 (Compass)
Hence, we are more likely to accept a dangerous idea if it aligns with our own experiences and is supported by the people we value.
Jessica C. Flack • Worlds Hidden in Plain Sight: The Evolving Idea of Complexity at the Santa Fe Institute, 1984–2019 (Compass)
Citizens, as political information processors, are not blank slates. Their knowledge structures, beliefs, and attitudes shape the reception and interpretation of new stimuli. These existing knowledge structures are informed by socialization, lived experiences, as well as the current and past information environment.
Oxford University Press • The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology (OXFORD HANDBOOKS SERIES)
When we are fused with our ego, we are driven to make decisions informed by external factors—what others will think or what outcomes can be achieved.
Frederic Laloux • Reinventing Organizations: A Guide to Creating Organizations Inspired by the Next Stage of Human Consciousness
Democracy is inevitably messy, in part because the availability and affect heuristics that guide citizens’ beliefs and attitudes are inevitably biased, even if they generally point in the right direction. Psychology should inform the design of risk policies that combine the experts’ knowledge with the public’s emotions and intuitions.