Sublime

In the wise guys method, you look for individuals who can accurately predict how other people will bet, but whose own bet is different. The logic is that if you can predict other people's bets, then you know the common knowledge. But if your opinion is also different than everyone else's, then you must know something they don't.

the world is stochastic. That’s just a fancy way of saying that luck makes it difficult to predict exactly how things will turn out, at least not in the short run. We operate not with certainties but with probabilities,

Disinterestedness: we all have a conflict of interest, and it’s contagious

peer recognition

We have already explored some strategies for achieving this: identify the hard part and tackle that first to avoid false progress; think about the conditions under which you would quit well in advance of having to face that decision down; create precommitment contracts and kill criteria. We now turn our attention to another strategy: Get outside

One of the goals for all of us should be to, as much as possible, maximize the diversification of interests, skills, and opportunities in each of our portfolios.

Our goal is to get our reflexive minds to execute on our deliberative minds’ best intentions.

They write, “The observed differences in ROIs are highly statistically significant and far larger in magnitude than those observed in financial markets where fees charged by the money managers viewed as being most talented can run as high as three percent of assets under management and thirty percent of annual returns.” Success in poker, in other