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If we don’t try to hold all the potential futures in mind before one of them happens, it becomes almost impossible to realistically evaluate decisions or probabilities after.
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
When Nick the Greek won with a seven and a deuce, he fielded that outcome into the skill bucket, taking credit for his brilliant strategy. When he lost with that hand—a much more common occurrence—he wrote it off as bad luck. His fielding error meant he never questioned his beliefs, no matter how much he lost. We’re all like Nick the Greek sometime
... See moreAnnie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
The quality of our lives is the sum of decision quality plus luck.
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
In the United States, we live in a very results-oriented society. If someone is rich or famous or beautiful, we tend to think they deserve to be those things. Often, in fact, these factors are self-reinforcing: making money begets more opportunities to make money; being famous provides someone with more ways to leverage their celebrity; standards o
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Our goal is to get our reflexive minds to execute on our deliberative minds’ best intentions. Poker players don’t need to know the underlying science to understand the difficulty of reconciling the two systems. Poker players have to make multiple decisions with significant financial consequences in a compressed time frame, and do it in a way that l
... See moreAnnie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
First, the world is a pretty random place. The influence of luck makes it impossible to predict exactly how things will turn out, and all the hidden information makes it even worse. If we don’t change our mindset, we’re going to have to deal with being wrong a lot. It’s built into the equation. Poker teaches that lesson. A great poker player who ha
... See moreAnnie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
CHAPTER 3 Bet to Learn: Fielding the Unfolding Future
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
A self-confessed nerd with a Bachelor's degree in Astrophysics, Liv Boeree combined her science background and passion for games to become one of the most recognizable faces in professional poker. She was the #1 ranked female player from 2014-2016 and holds both European Poker Tour and World Series of Poker championship titles after winning more t
... See moreJuan Orbea • Infopunk #3 – Poker Pros, Great Investors and Software Conglomerates
100% of our bad outcomes aren’t because we got unlucky and 100% of our good outcomes aren’t because we are so awesome. Yet that is how we process the future as it unfolds.