One way to restrain our tendency toward overconfidence is to habitually position ourselves in such a way that renders a prediction of the future unnecessary.
You might not know with certainty when the 100-year flood is coming, but you do know with certainty it will come. And that means you should leave yourself positioned accordingly.
"When I was a brand-new lieutenant, I asked my father, “How would I know if somebody that I worked for or worked for me was going to be a good commander in combat? ... How would you tell in peacetime?” He says, “You won’t. You won’t know because people have capabilities or coping mechanisms that in peacetime look fine, that doesn’t play well in... See more