“Competence is how good you are when there is something to gain. Character is how good you are when there is nothing to gain. People will reward you for competence. But people will only love you for your character.”
One way to restrain our tendency toward overconfidence is to habitually position ourselves in such a way that renders a prediction of the future unnecessary.
You might not know with certainty when the 100-year flood is coming, but you do know with certainty it will come. And that means you should leave yourself positioned accordingly.