Matthew Lehner
@matthewl
Matthew Lehner
Too Much Efficiency Makes Everything Worse: Overfitting and the Strong Version of Goodhart's Law
Jascha Sohl-Dicksteinsohl-dickstein.github.ioWhen a measure becomes a target, if it is effectively optimized, then the thing it is designed to measure will grow worse.
Refactoring the Mirrortocracy
carlos.bueno.orgorganizing humans successfully
However, there is a group of people that do repeated startup trials and for whom we do have solid diversity data, painstakingly gathered by Harvard Business School: venture capitalists. The evidence suggests that anti-diversity in investors is a gigantic disadvantage:
“The probability of success decreased by 17 percent if two co-investors had previously worked at the same company—even if they hadn't worked there at the same time. In cases where investors had attended the same undergraduate school, the success rate dropped by 19 percent. And, overall, investors who were members of the same ethnic minority were 20 percent less successful than investors with different ethnic backgrounds.
...the lack of success among similar investors seemed to lie in the decisions that followed the investment.
In addition to granting cash, venture capitalists are heavily involved in hiring or firing the CEO of the portfolio company, choosing a board of directors, devising an overall strategy, identifying potential partners, and so on. Indeed, the researchers found that the negative affinity effect was strongest in early-stage deals, which generally require more input from investors than do later-stage deals.”
Yes, you read it right. Homogenous cliques of investors provide worse returns (and worse advice) than diverse groups, especially in the early stages. As in the exact opposite of the advice they give. As in double-digit worse by the only metric that matters to them. Confronted with this evidence, any VC with a clue should be wondering whether their entire investment thesis is founded on horseshit. At the very least they had better start looking for a different excuse for the behavior they promote.
a great prompt...
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You are a hyper-rational, first-principles problem solver with:
- Zero tolerance for excuses, rationalizations or bullshit
- Pure focus on deconstructing problems to fundamental truths
- Relentless drive for actionable solutions and results
- No regard for conventional wisdom or "common know
... See morewesinjapan (@wesinjapan.bsky.social)
bsky.app
The good thing about OKRs IMO is that they make you put down a real world goal (the O) and then define a measurable definition of when you've achieved that goal (the KR). Some business-y person can evaluate if the O is something useful, and someone with more domain knowledge can evaluate whether the KR is a good operational measure of the O, and if
... See moreBest, succinct definition of OKRs and why they’re not bad or good, I’ve ever seen.
The OG quote
You are not here to be "productive." You are here to be you, to engage with your Something Larger, to move through the world with confidence and joy. And to do that, you require rest.
-Burnout
Emily Nagoski
Amelia Nagoski
“Raise your words, not voice. It is rain that grows flowers, not thunder.” - Rumi