Lucas Kohorst
@lucas
days @dcgco nights @adjacent___
Lucas Kohorst
kohor.st
Challenge Verification | CoinGecko
coingecko.comOftentimes with surprisingly little liquidity, prediction markets prove highly accurate and robust in the face of interference. The "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon ensures that these markets frequently outperform traditional forecasting tools like polls. For instance, the University of Iowa operates the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) as a research... See more
Mohit Agarwal • Kalshi’s Court Victory: A Turning Point for Prediction Markets?
coppock_2018
The study evaluates the effects of vote swapping in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, finding significant increases in support for Hillary Clinton among third-party voters using a field experimental design.
Link
Note from Citizens on the new per-bet tax in Illinois suggests that the move could prompt online sportsbook operators to nudge players in "higher tax states" toward (non-state-regulated) prediction markets: https://t.co/dEHI8QO56N
