Note from Citizens on the new per-bet tax in Illinois suggests that the move could prompt online sportsbook operators to nudge players in "higher tax states" toward (non-state-regulated) prediction markets: https://t.co/dEHI8QO56N
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
The document discusses prediction market prices as reflections of average beliefs under different utility functions. Field data supports that these prices generally correspond with mean beliefs.