Lucas Kohorst

L

Lucas Kohorst

@lucas

days @dcgco nights @adjacent___

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adly, Manifold does not produce particularly good predictions. In last year’s ACX contest, it performed worse than simply averaging predictions from the same number of people who took part in each market. Their calibration, while good by human standards, has a clear systematic bias towards predicting things will happen when they don’t (Yes bias).... See more

Robin • Manifold markets isn’t very good — EA Forum

Everything That Turned Out Well in My Life Followed the Same Design Process

Henrik Karlsson henrikkarlsson.xyz

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Online sports betting hurts consumers

Milan Singh slowboring.com

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Page Not Found - Ethereum Research

Prediction Markets and AI Diffusion

Dean W. Ball open.substack.com

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Sorry, I Still Think MR Is Wrong About USAID

Scott Alexander open.substack.com

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llama.ttf

fuglede.github.io

LLM inside a font

Invisible Labor, Visible Needs: Making Family Policy Work for Stay-At-Home (And All) Parents

Elliot Haspel capita.org

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What can we learn from scoring different election forecasts?

Jack firstsigma.substack.com

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