Lisa Fu
@lisaishere
Lisa Fu
Quant vs qual metrics
In the almost five years that I’ve been leading CPI ANZ, we’ve never had a “strategic plan.”
Each year, at the beginning of the year, I write a “CPI ANZ vision” which I share with the board. But I’ve been resistant to developing the more traditional 2-5 year strategic plan. And I’ve been thinking about why.
The reason is because most strategic plans
... See moreForecasting is often vibes. But so is expertise
Often experts apply their knowledge in unfamiliar or uncertain situations. “How much will this policy decrease child poverty” “Will Biden leave in the next 3 days” “Will I feel better after taking painkillers?” “How much will sea levels rise?”
docs.google.com
Just because you’ve got numbers attached to something doesn’t mean it means something or isn’t “made up”
bad assumptions to avoid:
you are solving the wrong problem
You were wrong about how much organisational support you have for this project
You don’t have a particular competitive advantage you thought you had, or you didn’t see the advantage before your competitor copied you
You were working on features that excited you but that don’t actually matter m
the whole point of applied research is to inform decisions. You don’t necessarily need specialised communication channels and documentation. You need to get the insights in front of the decision makers when they need them. Look at the types of communication that are most effective in your organisation and copy what’s already working.
- just enough
... See moreIt depends. What problem are you solving? If you’re trying to optimize something, you need data to guide you, because optimization requires clarifying benchmarks. If you’re exploring new frontiers, then you rely on intuition. That intuition is informed by experience with patterns, interaction models, systems, and taste. I work with Applied Scientis
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John Cutler on LinkedIn: Yes, you are making a forecast. Forecasts are never perfect. But some…
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These bedazzled methods fall under the category that Futurist Ilkka Tuomi labels as Epistemic Uncertainty , and the argument goes something like this:
However, as Tuomi astutely... See more
“I’m unsure about the answer to this problem, but I can solve it by gathering more data. Once I gather more data related to the problem, I will be able to devise a solution.”
However, as Tuomi astutely... See more