Johann Van Tonder
@jvt
20 years in ecommerce, now CEO of a CRO agency. Probably doing analysis in R or building stuff with AI. Or walking on the beach. Yeah, probably that.
Johann Van Tonder
“…this discovery of yours will create forgetfulness in the learners’ souls, because they will not use their memories; they will trust to the external written characters and not remember of themselves. The specific which you have discovered is an aid not to memory, but to reminiscence, and you give your disciples not truth, but only the semblance of
... See moreThe famous critique of writing by Socrates, recounting a myth about the Egyptian gods Theuth (inventor of writing) and Thamus (a king).
Writing might seem like a good tool for learning, but it actually makes people more forgetful. Why? Because when people rely on writing, they stop using their own memory. They don’t truly learn or retain knowledge inside themselves; they just look things up.
“There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.”
Albert Einstein (1932)
Ironically, Einstein’s own theoretical work on mass-energy equivalence (E=mc²) would later prove fundamental to nuclear physics. Just ten years after this prediction, the first human-made self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction was achieved in 1942.
https://www.technologynetworks.com/tn/lists/10-failed-scientific-predictions-276945
In 1903, the New York Times predicted it would take 1–10 million years to invent a working airplane.
The Wright brothers made their first powered flight just 9 weeks later.
“Fooling around with alternating current (AC) is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever.”
• Thomas Edison (1889)
“Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop.”
• Time Magazine (1966)
Time doubted that people would ever want to buy goods online, with an argument rooted in assumptions about shopping habits.
https://martech.zone/failed-predictions/
“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.”
• Ken Olsen, Founder of Digital Equipment Corporation (1977)
Quotes and Underestimating the Future
Olsen’s comment was actually about computers controlling homes, but it was interpreted as skepticism about the personal computer, becoming legendary for how wrong it seemed in retrospect
https://martech.zone/failed-predictions/
“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.”
William Orton, President of Western Union (1876)
“First the people running the old system don’t notice the change. When they do, they assume it’s minor. Then it’s a niche, then a fad. And by the time they understand that the world has actually changed, they’ve squandered most of the time they had to adapt.”
Daniel Goleman • Focus: The Hidden Driver of Excellence
Original quote is by Clay Shirky
Even Thomas Watson is reputed to have said, in 1943, “I think there is a world market for about five computers.”
Nicholas Carr • The Big Switch
There is no credible evidence that Watson actually made this statement, it is almost certainly apocryphal.
IBM historians say a 1953 stockholders’ meeting is likely the origin: Thomas Watson described a business trip to gauge demand for IBM’s new 701 computer. He said “we expected to get orders for 5 machines,” but they returned with 18 orders.