Underestimating the Future
“There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.”
Albert Einstein (1932)
Ironically, Einstein’s own theoretical work on mass-energy equivalence (E=mc²) would later prove fundamental to nuclear physics. Just ten years after this prediction, the first human-made self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction was achieved in 1942.
https://www.technologynetworks.com/tn/lists/10-failed-scientific-predictions-276945
In 1903, the New York Times predicted it would take 1–10 million years to invent a working airplane.
The Wright brothers made their first powered flight just 9 weeks later.
Even Thomas Watson is reputed to have said, in 1943, “I think there is a world market for about five computers.”
Nicholas Carr • The Big Switch
There is no credible evidence that Watson actually made this statement, it is almost certainly apocryphal.
IBM historians say a 1953 stockholders’ meeting is likely the origin: Thomas Watson described a business trip to gauge demand for IBM’s new 701 computer. He said “we expected to get orders for 5 machines,” but they returned with 18 orders.
“Fooling around with alternating current (AC) is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever.”
• Thomas Edison (1889)
“Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop.”
• Time Magazine (1966)
Time doubted that people would ever want to buy goods online, with an argument rooted in assumptions about shopping habits.
https://martech.zone/failed-predictions/
“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.”
• Ken Olsen, Founder of Digital Equipment Corporation (1977)
Olsen’s comment was actually about computers controlling homes, but it was interpreted as skepticism about the personal computer, becoming legendary for how wrong it seemed in retrospect
https://martech.zone/failed-predictions/
“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.”
William Orton, President of Western Union (1876)