Johanna

All of these lines of evidence lead me to the same conclusion: constant growth rates in response to exponentially increasing inputs is the null hypothesis. If it wasn’t, we should be expecting 50% year-on-year GDP growth, easily-discovered-immortality, and the like.

Leveraging your company with talent increases your volatility - either you orchestrate a revolution, or you implode.

There is no evidence that sleep was universally segmented, and there is also little evidence that segmented sleep is better. A 2021 meta-analysis of studies on biphasic sleep schedules found that segmented-sleeping subjects actually reported “lower sleep quality … and spent more time in lighter stages of sleep.” One reasonable takeaway is that... See more

Funding agencies need to stop funding under-powered studies using sloppy statistical methods and small group sizes. This will mean that fewer groups will receive funding. However, without some pain there will be no improvement. Labs should be forced to adapt to a harsh new reality that they will only get funding if they conduct high powered,... See more

You have to start by really understanding your project goals. Do you want to test a new product idea or make something really awesome regardless if people use it?Depending on your goals your developer needs will fall somewhere in this spectrum:The more you move to the right, the more you’ll pay, but the more the developer will “think” for you.

If you criticize X to Y, Y wonders whether you criticize him to others as well. This problem can increase to the extent your criticism is biting and on the mark.

For centuries, progress was stalled because inventors were all trying to create multi-person four-wheeled carriages, rather than single-person two-wheeled vehicles. It’s unclear why this was; certainly inventors were copying an existing mode of transportation, but why would they draw inspiration only from the horse-and-carriage, and not from the... See more

Most people do whatever most people they hang out with do. This mimetic behavior is usually a mistake—if you’re doing the same thing everyone else is doing, you will not be hard to compete with.