Jason Badeaux

Our multi-year research effort into Tesla’s manufacturing capabilities andsupply chain integrations suggest that Tesla is more than 6 years ahead of anycompetitor. This lead is expanding.

The beauty of the work token model is that, absent any speculators, increased usage of the network will cause an increase in the price of the token. As demand for the service grows, more revenue will flow to service providers. Given a fixed supply of tokens, service providers will rationally pay more per token for the right to earn part of a... See more

In terms of its function on the grid, the best way to think of Form’s battery is not as storage, but as the equivalent of a carbon-free natural gas plant. Rather than methane, it runs on renewable energy as fuel, but from the grid’s perspective, it provides basically the same service, which is reliable, dispatchable generation that can run for 100... See more

In 2019, Bloomberg surveyed 5,000 Tesla Model 3 owners. The survey revealed that 99% of Tesla owners would recommend the car to a friend, and 98% would buy the same Model 3 vehicle again. The results of this survey suggest that every customer an ICE manufacturer loses to Tesla is unlikely to return to their brand (at least until they can produce a... See more

Tesla’s cell constraints are likely to continue over the medium term. Because its most profitable use of cells is likely to be in electric vehicles, we do not expect Tesla’s energy storage business to drive enterprise value meaningfully during the next five years.

The future success of Tesla doesn’t depend so much on their products but rather on one thing: the Tesla Gigafactory.

The work token model captures ~100x more value than the proprietary payment currency model.How is this possible?If you instead use a utility token as a right to perform work on behalf of the network, it becomes valued at a multiple of the operating cash flows that the system generates rather than as a fraction of revenues paid to service providers.