Ishan
@ishan
Ishan
But more recently, prediction markets have developed an odd sort of problem. There seems to be a feedback mechanism now whereby the betting-market odds reify themselves.
What do we mean by that? In the case of Brexit, it goes like this: Different surveys give different results, and we all know not to trust the polls, which have notoriously failed in... See more
What do we mean by that? In the case of Brexit, it goes like this: Different surveys give different results, and we all know not to trust the polls, which have notoriously failed in... See more
David Rothschild • Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets
People don’t feed information back in the system since they assume that is the outcome. The direction is wrong. Not using own data to predict and then buying based on that (which feeds the system). Instead assuming that is the right odds and not changing it
As researchers in political science and as economists, we see three enticing advantages of forecasts from prediction markets, compared with poll-based forecasts of election outcomes: 1) Markets have full coverage of outcomes. They covered all primaries and caucuses in 2016, when polls covered about 50 percent of possible contests. Similarly, for Br... See more
David Rothschild • Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets
Prediction markets work because traders can see all of the standard forecast data and aggregate it along with other idiosyncratic or dispersed information about the election. Traders can aggregate polling data or follow published poll aggregates, and they can add in any other information they think is relevant.
David Rothschild • Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets
n the days leading up to the US election, pollsters had the race deadlocked. The vote was essentially a coin flip.
But over on the betting platform Polymarket, the odds were much more solidly in former President Donald Trump’s favor. On Monday, Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris 58% to 42% — a lead that, by Wednesday morning, proved to be a muc... See more
But over on the betting platform Polymarket, the odds were much more solidly in former President Donald Trump’s favor. On Monday, Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris 58% to 42% — a lead that, by Wednesday morning, proved to be a muc... See more
How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t | CNN Business
But more recently, prediction markets have developed an odd sort of problem. There seems to be a feedback mechanism now whereby the betting-market odds reify themselves. . . .... See more
Traders are treating market odds as correct probabilities and not updating enough based on outside information. Belief in the correctness of prediction markets causes them t
Just a moment...
Iconic successes seemed outright strange at first: Amazon (wait days to receive a product you’ve never seen), eBay (buy beanie babies from someone thousands of miles away), Google (trust an algorithm to answer your questions), LinkedIn (publicly post your resume), Facebook (share personal updates with people you haven’t seen in years), Airbnb (stay... See more
Philip Clark • The end of incrementalism: how AI will reward maximalist start-ups
Your average e-mail client, browser software, spreadsheet software does not have an opinion regarding how it should be used. Instead, it provides a maximum of flexibility which is appreciated by the average user, yet, not optimal for particular target groups. This enables an untapped potential for challenger firms which are capable of two things ( ... See more
Felix • The Era of Opinionated Productivity Software: Superhuman, Roam, What’s Next? | HackerNoon
Opinionated = Strong character 👨🏻🎤: Products such as Superhuman or Roam Research stand for something — they polarize. An E-Mail ending with “sent via Superhuman” signals professionalism. It’s more than the aura of a new product — it can become a sustainable branding advantage. Overall, I’m convinced that the importance of branding will increase... See more
Felix • The Era of Opinionated Productivity Software: Superhuman, Roam, What’s Next? | HackerNoon
The Era of Opinionated Productivity Software: Superhuman, Roam, What’s Next? | HackerNoon
Felixhackernoon.com
But what happens when the default approach conflicts with customer feedback? The Linear team believes there’s an art and a science to it. The team is generally more opinionated at the atomic level—deciding to add labels and due dates as issue properties, for example. As they move up the stack to broader concepts like projects, they take more cues ... See more
But what happens when the default approach conflicts with customer feedback? The Linear team believes there’s an art and a science to it. The team is generally more opinionated at the atomic level—deciding to add labels and due dates as issue properties, for example. As they move up the stack to broader concepts like projects, they take more cues ... See more