venture capital
resources and insights on the VC industry
Juan Orbea and
venture capital
Fund II
But the window doesn’t last long. As Paik thinks of it, “each time a new shift occurs, it is analogous to the formation of an unstable radioactive isotope. The radioactivity throws off a huge amount of energy in the form of capturable enterprise value, but is subject to half-life decay. Over time, the isotope decays and eventually becomes lead, at... See more
💥 4 Rules For Seizing Opportunity like Presidents, Investors, Gold Miners, and more
eing well-resourced and well-organized matters.
In one of my favorite essays, Choose Good Quests , Trae Stephens and Markie Wagner write about the moral imperative for founders who’ve gained experience, resources, and connections building easier companies early in their careers to use their experience, resources, and connections to tackle really... See more
In one of my favorite essays, Choose Good Quests , Trae Stephens and Markie Wagner write about the moral imperative for founders who’ve gained experience, resources, and connections building easier companies early in their careers to use their experience, resources, and connections to tackle really... See more
Packy McCormick • The Gang Captures Washington
As a founder, the goal then becomes to metaphorically peel each layer of the onion — Each fundraising milestone turning into a set of risks being evaluated and sidelined. The earliest investors become the partners to help figure out what to focus on. Good pre-seed angels and investors are often described as “having taste” for good startups — In... See more
Fund II
Onion theory extrapolated out to milestone driven approach towards pre-seed investing
Effective fundraisers have mastered the art of risk framing, demonstrating the ability to clearly articulate the risks associated with each milestone. And then, reassure the investors on how they will meet each one of them. In return, investors have developed standardized expectations for each round of fundraising.
In that context, the onion theory... See more
In that context, the onion theory... See more
Fund II
Risk framing for hardware investing
Onion theory
As the amount of capital raised by venture capital firms nearly 8x’d between 2013 and 2022, the number of new startups funded didn’t even double.
When you take total VC dollars raised, divided by the number of new companies, you’ll see the average startup today has 5x more VC capital available than its counterpart did in 2013.
Rather than fund more ideas or more types of founders, most VCs simply ended up giving more dollars to more of the same founders and ideas they’d always back.
Great businesses aren’t good enough to drive the kinds of returns needed to generate the kinds of returns mega funds demand. As more capital was consumed, more risk was layered on to push from a great outcome to a mega-fund returning outcome.
Today, the fuel for startups and the oxygen for funds are being cut significantly. There is less available capital and appetite for burn