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A better alternative would be to look at a tradable derivative that directly prices CPI. By tracking the price of the derivative, you can see exactly what others think the CPI release will be, and with enough participants, a public market would provide a great estimate of broader consensus. In fact, economic indicators are traded through... See more
Macro’s classic pitfall—surprise—and how to make it your friend
The core idea is simple: put the thinking (compute) as close as possible to the data and the person using it. Apple’s hardware, the MLX toolkit, and real‐world examples like Stable Diffusion running on a Mac, show that this isn’t science fiction, it’s here. Try running Apple’s Foundation Model on your iPhone in airplane mode and prepare to be... See more