predictions of the future

A lot of companies ask me, how can we tell which parts were written by the AI and which parts by the programmer? Well, if chat-oriented programming becomes the dominant modality for programmers, then LLMs will be writing the vast majority of all source code worldwide. That's a gargantuan shift, and it might even shake up the traditional software

Just as with lean production, Scenario #2 promises better quality, lower costs, and faster delivery. But it requires specific institutional conditions to initiate and to succeed:

• First, it thrives in contexts of demographic pressure , where young workers are scarce. This describes much of Europe (particularly given increasing resistance to

I truly believe we are headed for a new type of spiritual crisis with the devices we have. Put as directly as possible, I believe it’s a dopamine crash. We are strung out daily for our dopamine fixes, and we need to present serious alternatives.

when we expand a technology we expand it towards both the divine and the profane. But it is up to us to both define that which is divine/profane — instead of a broad acceptance of the profane as “just another use case that we can’t avoid”.

You know, absent solving some of these big problems, things are going to be so much better off. Alzheimer's, obesity, you know; we'll have a cure for HIV. We will have gotten rid of polio, measles, malaria. You know, the pace of innovation is greater today than ever. I'm lucky I still get to back incredibly smart people who are doing all of that

None of this is to diminish what is coming with AI; rather, as the saying goes, the future may arrive but be unevenly distributed, and, contrary to what you might think, the larger and more successful a company is the less they may benefit in the short term. Everything that makes a company work today is about harnessing people — and the entire SaaS

The second trap ( Scenario #2 ) is assuming you don't need junior workers anymore because AI can handle simple, repetitive tasks, while you retain only experienced workers who contribute critical process knowledge.

“communities of practice are groups of people who share a concern or a passion for something they do, and learn how to do it better as they interact regularly.”

As more knowledge workers spend their days prompting LLMs, it’s become popular to argue that asking good questions is becoming more valuable. What is less obvious but I think more interesting is that it will expose how little we actually care about answers, and in turn, what makes questions so valuable in the first place.