people science

The relevant contrast here is with causal modeling, where models represent the causes of something, while constitutive modeling is about the properties and characteristics of a phenomenon. A constitutive model tells us about characteristics and core features, but not why it happened (causes) or under what circumstances it will happen in the future ... See more

When models are used to identify and classify irregularities in a system, it is diagnostic modeling.

Qualitative models can use two forms of idealizations: Aristotelian and Galilean. In Aristotelian idealization, many aspects of the real-world system are left out of the model to make the model easier to work with. In Galilean idealization, features are included in the model, but their complexity is intentionally reduced (for example, looking at ed... See more

In qualitative modeling, which is what Kind is interested in, aspects of the real-world system are represented in a discrete manner. The states may be described, for instance, as “present,” “absent,” or neutral,” and relationships between variables may take the form of “increases,” “decreases,” or “irrelevant,” rather than mathematical formulae.

First, they create a simplified model using limited, initial information about the phenomenon they’re studying, with parts of the model assigned to represent parts of the real system. Second, they closely examine the model they are using to understand what it says and predicts about the real-world system. Third, they compare what they’ve learned fr... See more

When you get down to it, not everyone is as laser-focused on making money as they say they are. “There are people whose primary goal is to be right. That works a high percentage of the time, but it can be disastrous because your ego and portfolio get caught up in that goal instead of just making money,” Duncan says.

“At any one time, there are only 100 people in the world whose map of reality on a complex subject—AI, global politics, interest-rate policy—is extremely accurate,” Duncan says. These individuals see the field clearly because of where they sit, but also because the field itself fascinates and absorbs them. This passion, Duncan explains, causes them... See more

Another thing that Duncan is always trying to figure out is whether someone has truly stepped into their own, or if they’re still working within ‘somebody else’s frame’.

He regularly put a couple of dozen up-and-coming hedge-fund managers around a table and had them pitch ideas. It wasn’t just about the ideas in these situations, but observing which way the table leaned. “If you have a group of 20 people together, the room kind of knows where the pockets of quality are most of the time. And you can see this if you ... See more